TableĀ 1

Rates of predicted and actual morbidity

OutcomesCorrectly predicted complications (n=104)Average predicted risk in study population (n=104)Actual incidence in practice (n=4924)
Serious complication14 (20.90%)6.25%67 (1.36%)
Any complication73 (78.49%)8.86%93 (1.89%)
Pneumonia0 (0.00%)0.34%0 (0.00%)
Cardiac complication0 (0.00%)0.26%0 (0.00%)
Surgical site infection10 (24.39%)3.30%41 (0.83%)
Urinary tract infection0 (0.00%)0.49%1 (0.02%)
Venous Thromboembolism0 (0.00%)0.40%1 (0.02%)
Renal failure*0 (0.00%)0.05%0 (0.00%)
Return to OR14 (24.14%)4.89%58 (1.18%)
Death2 (66.67%)0.81%3 (0.06%)
Discharge to nursing or rehab facility0 (0.00%)2.95%0 (0.00%)
  • Bold denotes significant values.

  • *Excluded four patients with previous renal failure.

  • OR, operating room.